Isolating Iran Creates Stronger Asian Cooperation

Iran and Israel have spent the last number of weeks conducting provocative military exercises in a bid to demonstrate the respective strength of their armed forces. The intention may be deterrence but the further escalation of threats can only lead to negative consequences.

Israel confirmed that it conducted a major aerial military exercise over the eastern Mediterranean Sea during early June. The message was clear: Israel has the capacity to attack any Iranian nuclear programme and is willing to do so. The posturing over recent weeks by both states reached new heights on Wednesday with Iran test-firing its latest missile, the Shahab 3, which has the capability of reaching Israel, eastern Turkey and Pakistan. The next generation of their Shahab missile programme will seek to produce missiles capable of reaching Europe.

The Iranian test led to criticisms from the United States, who signed a missile-defence treaty with the Czech Republic on Wednesday, which in turn led to strong criticism from Russia who view the move as hostile. The Czech Republic will host the radar system for the proposed project. Condoleezza Rica stated that "this missile defence agreement is significant as a building block not just for the security of the United States and the Czech Republic, but also for the security of Nato and the security of the international community as a whole….Ballistic missile proliferation is not an imaginary threat."

With neigbours on both sides (Afghanistan and Iraq) being invaded by the United States, it is no wonder that Iran is feeling somewhat ill at ease. They could be next on the list but are perhaps relieved that the US Presidential system allows for only two terms. We wait to see whether John McCain will provide the third. Iran continues to maintain that the aim of its nuclear programme is purely non-military, though the scepticism that this claim has generated throughout the world has led to the imposition of sanctions on Iran. A nuclear weapon would provide Iran with a greater deterrent against potential attacks but the worry in Israel that such a weapon would be used may very well lead to pre-emptory attacks, and a precedent for this has been set.

Perhaps most worrying for the US should be the fact that their increasing isolation of Iran has resulted in the development of a stronger relationship between the Chinese and Iranian governments. In a visit to Iran during April by China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Zhai Jun, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki suggested the possibility of creating an Asian Union that would act as a counter balance to US and European power on the international stage. China has sought to increase trade relations with Iran and, as Western states increasingly isolate Iran, China’s influence in the region has increased. The rapidly expanding Chinese economy requires the energy sources that a nation like Iran can provide. With the growing interdependence between China and Iran, the American policy of isolating Iran may prove another failed policy. With diplomacy and modest reconciliation with North Korea, the ‘Axis of Evil’ club is now down to just one member. It may be time to re-engage with Iran in a bid to relax tensions in the region and prevent any possible move by Iran to disrupt oil shipping through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Expect the posturing by all sides to continue.